{"schema_version":"1.0","adjudicated_on":"2026-09-19","review_type":"Internal record-level methodological and scope re-adjudication; not independent human peer review, calibrated confidence validation or a fresh empirical data collection","evidence_date_policy":"Original August evidence cutoffs and trend horizons remain; September is the correction date. No new source observations are claimed by this record.","prior_baseline":"docs/reviews/2026-09-19/previous-baseline.json","baseline_commit":"f2e9ae1","core_assessment_sha256":"ad2b015a269aac499b859b0684f6893055f5d6ac353f61abc76a1c38815ae8b6","changes":[{"ids":["MU-D3","MU-T3"],"before":"PRC edge / High comparative confidence","after":"Insufficient comparative basis / comparison not assessed; High confidence in the documented U.S. maintenance constraint; no axis marker","rationale":"U.S. maintenance audits do not contain matched PLAN availability or repair-cycle output. Industrial depth is a different construct. Overall maritime remains Contested, score -0.25, because other mission mechanisms remain independently relevant.","evidence_needed":"Class-adjusted available hull-days, repair cycle, accepted deployable returns, and common periods for both fleets.","title":"Fleet readiness and repair throughput"},{"ids":["II-D04"],"before":"U.S. / partner edge / Low","after":"Insufficient comparative basis; historical U.S. audience retained","rationale":"A method-documented FY2024 U.S. audience and unmatched PRC supply counts cannot identify a present bilateral consumption difference. Relative reach trends are withheld too.","evidence_needed":"Named actor boundaries and matched country/language/audience panels, common periods, unduplicated consumption and post-disruption refresh.","title":"International information reach"},{"ids":["DC-D07","DC-D10"],"before":"U.S. / partner edge / Low","after":"Insufficient comparative basis; previously published categories remain visible","rationale":"Absolute security delivery and persistence are retained positive evidence. Removing unmatched Ukraine/NATO cases or holding observability constant leaves no common obligation and stress-exposure denominator for a system-wide edge. Trends no longer imply a relative direction.","evidence_needed":"Matched mission/stakes, obligation-level completion and critical-role retention at 12/24 months, including nonperformance and repair.","title":"Coalition delivery and durability"},{"ids":["II-D06"],"before":"Cultural Influence: U.S. / partner edge / Moderate","after":"Cultural attraction (effects unscored): observed attraction edge retained; culture-attributable effects unscored","rationale":"Education and English choices are opportunity/utility-confounded. Excluding them leaves reputation/arts evidence for attraction, not a causal effect on persistent behavior. No numerical reweighting or causal estimate is claimed.","evidence_needed":"Longitudinal or matched contact studies controlling access, price, visa, earnings, safety and language utility.","title":"Cultural attraction versus effects"},{"ids":["EI-D02"],"before":"Manufacturing-scale edge bundled with speed, learning and cost claims","after":"High-confidence scale finding retained; downstream mechanisms explicitly unestimated","rationale":"Manufacturing breadth and value added do not directly measure lead time, yields, quality-adjusted costs or qualified surge.","evidence_needed":"Product-level accepted output, lead time, yield/rework, subsidy-inclusive cost and surge timing.","title":"Manufacturing scale versus speed and cost"},{"ids":["IS-P06"],"before":"rare_and_objective_dependent; cost more often than policy change","after":"cost_not_sufficient_for_compellence","rationale":"Purposively selected cases identify failures of conversion, not relative frequencies in a population.","evidence_needed":"An independently defined case universe, success/objective definitions and observation windows before estimating prevalence.","title":"Coercion cases versus population frequencies"},{"ids":["MU-A1"],"before":"Highest-return intervention; High feasibility; 1–3 years; faster than equivalent new build","after":"Conditional bottleneck hypothesis; feasibility, cost and timing not estimated; explicit alternatives and stop test","rationale":"Maintenance audits diagnose a constraint but do not compare marginal returns or establish equivalence with other interventions.","evidence_needed":"Named ship class/work package, deadline, marginal resources, recovered usable hull-days, displaced workforce, alternatives and uncertainty.","title":"Maritime policy priorities"}],"metadata_policy":"No role or observability is inferred from the label/confidence. No legacy ID is exempt. Directional records have explicit scoped mechanisms; limited outcome observability lowers selected comparative confidence. For non-directional records lacking separate factual adjudication, factual confidence is explicitly Not independently assessed, not copied from an old comparative rating. These remain ordinal judgments, not probabilities.","metadata_changes":[{"id":"SP-D1","file":"docs/analyses/space.json","before":{"confidence":"High","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":"comparative_mechanism","comparative_observability":"limited","fact_confidence":"Moderate","comparative_confidence":"Moderate"},"mechanism":"Operating navigation, warning and communication services establish a mature U.S. service architecture; the comparison is architectural and does not measure service survival under attack."},{"id":"SP-D2","file":"docs/analyses/space.json","before":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":"split_or_inconclusive","comparative_observability":"limited","fact_confidence":"Not independently assessed","comparative_confidence":"Moderate"},"mechanism":""},{"id":"SP-D3","file":"docs/analyses/space.json","before":{"confidence":"High","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":"comparative_mechanism","comparative_observability":"partial","fact_confidence":"Moderate","comparative_confidence":"Moderate"},"mechanism":"Commercial launch depth and demonstrated reassignment support U.S. access-to-orbit responsiveness; payload readiness, checkout and restored mission service remain separate dependencies."},{"id":"SP-D4","file":"docs/analyses/space.json","before":{"confidence":"Low–moderate","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Low–moderate","evidence_role":"split_or_inconclusive","comparative_observability":"limited","fact_confidence":"Not independently assessed","comparative_confidence":"Low–moderate"},"mechanism":""},{"id":"SP-D5","file":"docs/analyses/space.json","before":{"confidence":"Low–moderate","evidence_role":"opposing_side_deficit","comparative_observability":"one-sided","fact_confidence":"High","comparative_confidence":"Low–moderate"},"after":{"confidence":"Low–moderate","evidence_role":"opposing_side_deficit","comparative_observability":"one-sided","fact_confidence":"High","comparative_confidence":"Low–moderate"},"mechanism":""},{"id":"SP-D6","file":"docs/analyses/space.json","before":{"confidence":"Low","evidence_role":"opposing_side_deficit","comparative_observability":"one-sided","fact_confidence":"High","comparative_confidence":"Low"},"after":{"confidence":"Low","evidence_role":"opposing_side_deficit","comparative_observability":"one-sided","fact_confidence":"High","comparative_confidence":"Low"},"mechanism":""},{"id":"SP-T1","file":"docs/analyses/space.json","before":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":"comparative_mechanism","comparative_observability":"limited","fact_confidence":"Moderate","comparative_confidence":"Moderate"},"mechanism":"Operating navigation, warning and communication services establish a mature U.S. service architecture; the comparison is architectural and does not measure service survival under attack."},{"id":"SP-T2","file":"docs/analyses/space.json","before":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":"split_or_inconclusive","comparative_observability":"limited","fact_confidence":"Not independently assessed","comparative_confidence":"Moderate"},"mechanism":""},{"id":"SP-T3","file":"docs/analyses/space.json","before":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":"split_or_inconclusive","comparative_observability":"limited","fact_confidence":"Not independently assessed","comparative_confidence":"Moderate"},"mechanism":""},{"id":"SP-T4","file":"docs/analyses/space.json","before":{"confidence":"High","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":"comparative_mechanism","comparative_observability":"partial","fact_confidence":"Moderate","comparative_confidence":"Moderate"},"mechanism":"Commercial launch depth and demonstrated reassignment support U.S. access-to-orbit responsiveness; payload readiness, checkout and restored mission service remain separate dependencies."},{"id":"SP-T5","file":"docs/analyses/space.json","before":{"confidence":"Low","evidence_role":"opposing_side_deficit","comparative_observability":"one-sided","fact_confidence":"High","comparative_confidence":"Low"},"after":{"confidence":"Low","evidence_role":"opposing_side_deficit","comparative_observability":"one-sided","fact_confidence":"High","comparative_confidence":"Low"},"mechanism":""},{"id":"AL-D1","file":"docs/analyses/alliances-logistics.json","before":{"confidence":"High","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":"comparative_mechanism","comparative_observability":"partial","fact_confidence":"Moderate","comparative_confidence":"Moderate"},"mechanism":"Named mutual-defense, basing and rotational arrangements provide more U.S./partner operating options than the observed PRC network; permissions for particular wartime missions remain conditional."},{"id":"AL-D2","file":"docs/analyses/alliances-logistics.json","before":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":"comparative_mechanism","comparative_observability":"limited","fact_confidence":"Moderate","comparative_confidence":"Moderate"},"mechanism":"Repeated joint and allied operations establish a practiced U.S. integration baseline; the inferential link is accumulated cross-service coordination, not a measured advantage under peer denial."},{"id":"AL-D3","file":"docs/analyses/alliances-logistics.json","before":{"confidence":"Low–moderate","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Low–moderate","evidence_role":"comparative_mechanism","comparative_observability":"limited","fact_confidence":"Moderate","comparative_confidence":"Low–moderate"},"mechanism":"Named operating arrangements across several partner jurisdictions distribute U.S. access options beyond the observed PRC network; crisis authorization and usable capacity are not assured."},{"id":"AL-D4","file":"docs/analyses/alliances-logistics.json","before":{"confidence":"High","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":"comparative_mechanism","comparative_observability":"partial","fact_confidence":"Moderate","comparative_confidence":"Moderate"},"mechanism":"PRC forces can draw on nearby home infrastructure while U.S. forces must move fuel and support over exposed ocean routes. This geographic mechanism supports a theater distribution inference, not measured wartime throughput."},{"id":"AL-D5","file":"docs/analyses/alliances-logistics.json","before":{"confidence":"Low–moderate","evidence_role":"opposing_side_deficit","comparative_observability":"one-sided","fact_confidence":"High","comparative_confidence":"Low–moderate"},"after":{"confidence":"Low–moderate","evidence_role":"opposing_side_deficit","comparative_observability":"one-sided","fact_confidence":"High","comparative_confidence":"Low–moderate"},"mechanism":""},{"id":"AL-D6","file":"docs/analyses/alliances-logistics.json","before":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":"split_or_inconclusive","comparative_observability":"limited","fact_confidence":"Not independently assessed","comparative_confidence":"Moderate"},"mechanism":""},{"id":"AL-T1","file":"docs/analyses/alliances-logistics.json","before":{"confidence":"Moderate–high","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":"comparative_mechanism","comparative_observability":"partial","fact_confidence":"Moderate","comparative_confidence":"Moderate"},"mechanism":"Named mutual-defense, basing and rotational arrangements provide more U.S./partner operating options than the observed PRC network; permissions for particular wartime missions remain conditional."},{"id":"AL-T2","file":"docs/analyses/alliances-logistics.json","before":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":"comparative_mechanism","comparative_observability":"limited","fact_confidence":"Moderate","comparative_confidence":"Moderate"},"mechanism":"Repeated joint and allied operations establish a practiced U.S. integration baseline; the inferential link is accumulated cross-service coordination, not a measured advantage under peer denial."},{"id":"AL-T3","file":"docs/analyses/alliances-logistics.json","before":{"confidence":"High","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":"comparative_mechanism","comparative_observability":"partial","fact_confidence":"Moderate","comparative_confidence":"Moderate"},"mechanism":"PRC forces can draw on nearby home infrastructure while U.S. forces must move fuel and support over exposed ocean routes. This geographic mechanism supports a theater distribution inference, not measured wartime throughput."},{"id":"AL-T4","file":"docs/analyses/alliances-logistics.json","before":{"confidence":"Low–moderate","evidence_role":"opposing_side_deficit","comparative_observability":"one-sided","fact_confidence":"High","comparative_confidence":"Low–moderate"},"after":{"confidence":"Low–moderate","evidence_role":"opposing_side_deficit","comparative_observability":"one-sided","fact_confidence":"High","comparative_confidence":"Low–moderate"},"mechanism":""},{"id":"AL-T5","file":"docs/analyses/alliances-logistics.json","before":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":"split_or_inconclusive","comparative_observability":"limited","fact_confidence":"Not independently assessed","comparative_confidence":"Moderate"},"mechanism":""},{"id":"AI-D1","file":"docs/analyses/ai-decision.json","before":{"confidence":"High","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"High","evidence_role":"comparative_mechanism","comparative_observability":"partial","fact_confidence":"High","comparative_confidence":"High"},"mechanism":"CAISI tests compare named U.S. and PRC models on the same bounded benchmark suite. The judgment applies to evaluated frontier capability, not general intelligence or military decision outcomes."},{"id":"AI-D2","file":"docs/analyses/ai-decision.json","before":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":"comparative_mechanism","comparative_observability":"partial","fact_confidence":"Moderate","comparative_confidence":"Moderate"},"mechanism":"Frontier accelerators, software, providers and high-impact research form an accessible U.S./partner input stack; PRC efficiency and growing research scale offset it. Military allocation remains unobserved."},{"id":"AI-D3","file":"docs/analyses/ai-decision.json","before":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":"comparative_mechanism","comparative_observability":"partial","fact_confidence":"High","comparative_confidence":"Moderate"},"mechanism":"The cited evaluation compares end-to-end cost on common tested workloads; the advantage is bounded to those workloads and configurations, not universal mission cost."},{"id":"AI-D4","file":"docs/analyses/ai-decision.json","before":{"confidence":"Low–moderate","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Low–moderate","evidence_role":"comparative_mechanism","comparative_observability":"partial","fact_confidence":"Moderate","comparative_confidence":"Low–moderate"},"mechanism":"High-impact research and collaboration favor U.S. translation pathways while PRC publication and talent volumes offset them; these proxies do not establish military innovation output."},{"id":"AI-D5","file":"docs/analyses/ai-decision.json","before":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Low–moderate","evidence_role":"comparative_mechanism","comparative_observability":"limited","fact_confidence":"Moderate","comparative_confidence":"Low–moderate"},"mechanism":"Agreements with eight frontier providers establish a documented classified-access pathway. A provider-choice mechanism is plausible, but no comparable PLA deployment panel or mission-effect result is available."},{"id":"AI-D6","file":"docs/analyses/ai-decision.json","before":{"confidence":"Low","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Low","evidence_role":"split_or_inconclusive","comparative_observability":"limited","fact_confidence":"Not independently assessed","comparative_confidence":"Low"},"mechanism":""},{"id":"AI-D7","file":"docs/analyses/ai-decision.json","before":{"confidence":"Low–moderate","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Low–moderate","evidence_role":"split_or_inconclusive","comparative_observability":"limited","fact_confidence":"Not independently assessed","comparative_confidence":"Low–moderate"},"mechanism":""},{"id":"AI-T1","file":"docs/analyses/ai-decision.json","before":{"confidence":"High","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"High","evidence_role":"comparative_mechanism","comparative_observability":"partial","fact_confidence":"High","comparative_confidence":"High"},"mechanism":"CAISI tests compare named U.S. and PRC models on the same bounded benchmark suite. The judgment applies to evaluated frontier capability, not general intelligence or military decision outcomes."},{"id":"AI-T2","file":"docs/analyses/ai-decision.json","before":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":"comparative_mechanism","comparative_observability":"partial","fact_confidence":"Moderate","comparative_confidence":"Moderate"},"mechanism":"Frontier accelerators, software, providers and high-impact research form an accessible U.S./partner input stack; PRC efficiency and growing research scale offset it. Military allocation remains unobserved."},{"id":"AI-T3","file":"docs/analyses/ai-decision.json","before":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Low–moderate","evidence_role":"comparative_mechanism","comparative_observability":"limited","fact_confidence":"Moderate","comparative_confidence":"Low–moderate"},"mechanism":"Agreements with eight frontier providers establish a documented classified-access pathway. A provider-choice mechanism is plausible, but no comparable PLA deployment panel or mission-effect result is available."},{"id":"AI-T4","file":"docs/analyses/ai-decision.json","before":{"confidence":"Low","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Low","evidence_role":"split_or_inconclusive","comparative_observability":"limited","fact_confidence":"Not independently assessed","comparative_confidence":"Low"},"mechanism":""},{"id":"AI-T5","file":"docs/analyses/ai-decision.json","before":{"confidence":"Low–moderate","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Low–moderate","evidence_role":"split_or_inconclusive","comparative_observability":"limited","fact_confidence":"Not independently assessed","comparative_confidence":"Low–moderate"},"mechanism":""},{"id":"EN-D1","file":"docs/analyses/energy.json","before":{"confidence":"High","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"High","evidence_role":"comparative_mechanism","comparative_observability":"partial","fact_confidence":"High","comparative_confidence":"High"},"mechanism":"Observed domestic oil/gas output and PRC crude-import dependence support a feedstock-access advantage for the United States; overseas military fuel delivery is a separate construct."},{"id":"EN-D2","file":"docs/analyses/energy.json","before":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":"split_or_inconclusive","comparative_observability":"limited","fact_confidence":"Not independently assessed","comparative_confidence":"Moderate"},"mechanism":""},{"id":"EN-D3","file":"docs/analyses/energy.json","before":{"confidence":"Moderate–high","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":"comparative_mechanism","comparative_observability":"partial","fact_confidence":"Moderate","comparative_confidence":"Moderate"},"mechanism":"Comparative installed generation and annual additions support greater PRC power-system scale. Firm delivered power at priority defense nodes and restoration are not measured by those totals."},{"id":"EN-D4","file":"docs/analyses/energy.json","before":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":"comparative_mechanism","comparative_observability":"partial","fact_confidence":"Moderate","comparative_confidence":"Moderate"},"mechanism":"The larger operating U.S. nuclear fleet supplies a current installed-base advantage; faster PRC construction and unfielded U.S. microreactors limit extrapolation."},{"id":"EN-D5","file":"docs/analyses/energy.json","before":{"confidence":"Low–moderate","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Low–moderate","evidence_role":"split_or_inconclusive","comparative_observability":"limited","fact_confidence":"Not independently assessed","comparative_confidence":"Low–moderate"},"mechanism":""},{"id":"EN-D6","file":"docs/analyses/energy.json","before":{"confidence":"High","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":"comparative_mechanism","comparative_observability":"partial","fact_confidence":"Moderate","comparative_confidence":"Moderate"},"mechanism":"PRC forces can draw on nearby home infrastructure while U.S. forces must move fuel and support over exposed ocean routes. This geographic mechanism supports a theater distribution inference, not measured wartime throughput."},{"id":"EN-T1","file":"docs/analyses/energy.json","before":{"confidence":"High","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"High","evidence_role":"comparative_mechanism","comparative_observability":"partial","fact_confidence":"High","comparative_confidence":"High"},"mechanism":"Observed domestic oil/gas output and PRC crude-import dependence support a feedstock-access advantage for the United States; overseas military fuel delivery is a separate construct."},{"id":"EN-T2","file":"docs/analyses/energy.json","before":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":"split_or_inconclusive","comparative_observability":"limited","fact_confidence":"Not independently assessed","comparative_confidence":"Moderate"},"mechanism":""},{"id":"EN-T3","file":"docs/analyses/energy.json","before":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":"comparative_mechanism","comparative_observability":"partial","fact_confidence":"Moderate","comparative_confidence":"Moderate"},"mechanism":"Comparative installed generation and annual additions support greater PRC power-system scale. Firm delivered power at priority defense nodes and restoration are not measured by those totals."},{"id":"EN-T4","file":"docs/analyses/energy.json","before":{"confidence":"Low–moderate","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Low–moderate","evidence_role":"split_or_inconclusive","comparative_observability":"limited","fact_confidence":"Not independently assessed","comparative_confidence":"Low–moderate"},"mechanism":""},{"id":"EN-T5","file":"docs/analyses/energy.json","before":{"confidence":"High","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":"comparative_mechanism","comparative_observability":"partial","fact_confidence":"Moderate","comparative_confidence":"Moderate"},"mechanism":"PRC forces can draw on nearby home infrastructure while U.S. forces must move fuel and support over exposed ocean routes. This geographic mechanism supports a theater distribution inference, not measured wartime throughput."},{"id":"MU-D1","file":"docs/analyses/maritime-undersea.json","before":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":"comparative_mechanism","comparative_observability":"limited","fact_confidence":"Moderate","comparative_confidence":"Moderate"},"mechanism":"Converging platform, exercise and allied-access evidence supports a U.S. undersea-denial mechanism; acoustic performance and combat-effective hull availability are not publicly matched."},{"id":"MU-D2","file":"docs/analyses/maritime-undersea.json","before":{"confidence":"High","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":"comparative_mechanism","comparative_observability":"partial","fact_confidence":"Moderate","comparative_confidence":"Moderate"},"mechanism":"Observed regional fleet mass and short internal lines allow PRC concentration beneath land-based cover; allied access offsets this mechanism and readiness is not inferred from hull counts."},{"id":"MU-D3","file":"docs/analyses/maritime-undersea.json","before":{"confidence":"High","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Not assessed","evidence_role":"opposing_side_deficit","comparative_observability":"one-sided","fact_confidence":"High","comparative_confidence":"Not assessed"},"mechanism":""},{"id":"MU-D4","file":"docs/analyses/maritime-undersea.json","before":{"confidence":"High","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"High","evidence_role":"comparative_mechanism","comparative_observability":"partial","fact_confidence":"High","comparative_confidence":"High"},"mechanism":"Observed commercial/naval industrial scale and new-class production support a PRC shipbuilding-base advantage, distinct from fleet repair performance or combat effectiveness."},{"id":"MU-D5","file":"docs/analyses/maritime-undersea.json","before":{"confidence":"Low–moderate","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Low–moderate","evidence_role":"split_or_inconclusive","comparative_observability":"limited","fact_confidence":"Not independently assessed","comparative_confidence":"Low–moderate"},"mechanism":""},{"id":"MU-D6","file":"docs/analyses/maritime-undersea.json","before":{"confidence":"Low","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Low","evidence_role":"split_or_inconclusive","comparative_observability":"limited","fact_confidence":"Not independently assessed","comparative_confidence":"Low"},"mechanism":""},{"id":"MU-T1","file":"docs/analyses/maritime-undersea.json","before":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":"comparative_mechanism","comparative_observability":"limited","fact_confidence":"Moderate","comparative_confidence":"Moderate"},"mechanism":"Converging platform, exercise and allied-access evidence supports a U.S. undersea-denial mechanism; 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This is an asymmetric exposed-network leverage judgment, not a symmetric comparison of national offensive capability."},{"id":"CY-T2","file":"docs/analyses/cyber-electronic-warfare.json","before":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Low–moderate","evidence_role":"comparative_mechanism","comparative_observability":"limited","fact_confidence":"Moderate","comparative_confidence":"Low–moderate"},"mechanism":"The documented U.S. operational cyber-force and allied integration provide an organizational pathway advantage; classified effects and PLA readiness prevent an outcome comparison."},{"id":"CY-T3","file":"docs/analyses/cyber-electronic-warfare.json","before":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":"opposing_side_deficit","comparative_observability":"one-sided","fact_confidence":"High","comparative_confidence":"Moderate"},"after":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":"opposing_side_deficit","comparative_observability":"one-sided","fact_confidence":"High","comparative_confidence":"Moderate"},"mechanism":""},{"id":"CY-T4","file":"docs/analyses/cyber-electronic-warfare.json","before":{"confidence":"Low–moderate","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Low–moderate","evidence_role":"split_or_inconclusive","comparative_observability":"limited","fact_confidence":"Not independently assessed","comparative_confidence":"Low–moderate"},"mechanism":""},{"id":"CY-T5","file":"docs/analyses/cyber-electronic-warfare.json","before":{"confidence":"Low–moderate","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Low–moderate","evidence_role":"split_or_inconclusive","comparative_observability":"limited","fact_confidence":"Not independently assessed","comparative_confidence":"Low–moderate"},"mechanism":""},{"id":"EC-D1","file":"docs/analyses/experience-cohesion.json","before":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":"comparative_mechanism","comparative_observability":"limited","fact_confidence":"Moderate","comparative_confidence":"Moderate"},"mechanism":"Repeated joint and allied operations establish a practiced U.S. integration baseline; 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launcher readiness and reliable salvo size remain undisclosed."},{"id":"LF-T2","file":"docs/analyses/long-range-fires.json","before":{"confidence":"Low–moderate","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Low–moderate","evidence_role":"split_or_inconclusive","comparative_observability":"limited","fact_confidence":"Not independently assessed","comparative_confidence":"Low–moderate"},"mechanism":""},{"id":"LF-T3","file":"docs/analyses/long-range-fires.json","before":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":"comparative_mechanism","comparative_observability":"partial","fact_confidence":"Moderate","comparative_confidence":"Moderate"},"mechanism":"Observed air, sea, submarine and land launch pathways diversify U.S. attack routes and signatures; available platforms, authorized targets and usable rounds bound the inference."},{"id":"LF-T4","file":"docs/analyses/long-range-fires.json","before":{"confidence":"Low–moderate","evidence_role":"opposing_side_deficit","comparative_observability":"one-sided","fact_confidence":"High","comparative_confidence":"Low–moderate"},"after":{"confidence":"Low–moderate","evidence_role":"opposing_side_deficit","comparative_observability":"one-sided","fact_confidence":"High","comparative_confidence":"Low–moderate"},"mechanism":""},{"id":"LF-T5","file":"docs/analyses/long-range-fires.json","before":{"confidence":"Low–moderate","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Low–moderate","evidence_role":"split_or_inconclusive","comparative_observability":"limited","fact_confidence":"Not independently assessed","comparative_confidence":"Low–moderate"},"mechanism":""},{"id":"CR-D1","file":"docs/pilots/critical-resources-analysis.json","before":{"confidence":"High","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"High","evidence_role":"comparative_mechanism","comparative_observability":"partial","fact_confidence":"High","comparative_confidence":"High"},"mechanism":"Commodity-specific production, processing and import-reliance observations compare operating supply positions. The judgment concerns the named supply stage, not undisclosed defense demand, inventories or wartime allocation."},{"id":"CR-D2","file":"docs/pilots/critical-resources-analysis.json","before":{"confidence":"High","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"High","evidence_role":"comparative_mechanism","comparative_observability":"partial","fact_confidence":"High","comparative_confidence":"High"},"mechanism":"Commodity-specific production, processing and import-reliance observations compare operating supply positions. The judgment concerns the named supply stage, not undisclosed defense demand, inventories or wartime allocation."},{"id":"CR-D3","file":"docs/pilots/critical-resources-analysis.json","before":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":"comparative_mechanism","comparative_observability":"partial","fact_confidence":"High","comparative_confidence":"Moderate"},"mechanism":"Operating processing and component ecosystems and current supply exposure support the bounded PRC chain advantage; U.S./partner operating output is credited and unqualified projects are not counted as delivered capacity."},{"id":"CR-D4","file":"docs/pilots/critical-resources-analysis.json","before":{"confidence":"Moderate-low","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Low","evidence_role":"comparative_mechanism","comparative_observability":"one-sided","fact_confidence":"High","comparative_confidence":"Low"},"mechanism":"Observed U.S. lower-tier mapping gaps combine with concentrated PRC processing and state influence to suggest a coordination mechanism; comparable PRC supplier visibility is not observed."},{"id":"CR-D5","file":"docs/pilots/critical-resources-analysis.json","before":{"confidence":"Low","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Low","evidence_role":"split_or_inconclusive","comparative_observability":"limited","fact_confidence":"Not independently assessed","comparative_confidence":"Low"},"mechanism":""},{"id":"CR-D6","file":"docs/pilots/critical-resources-analysis.json","before":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":"comparative_mechanism","comparative_observability":"partial","fact_confidence":"High","comparative_confidence":"Moderate"},"mechanism":"Operating processing and component ecosystems and current supply exposure support the bounded PRC chain advantage; U.S./partner operating output is credited and unqualified projects are not counted as delivered capacity."},{"id":"CR-P01","file":"docs/pilots/critical-resources-analysis.json","before":{"confidence":"High","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":"comparative_mechanism","comparative_observability":"partial","fact_confidence":"High","comparative_confidence":"Moderate"},"mechanism":"Operating processing and component ecosystems and current supply exposure support the bounded PRC chain advantage; U.S./partner operating output is credited and unqualified projects are not counted as delivered capacity."},{"id":"CR-P02","file":"docs/pilots/critical-resources-analysis.json","before":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Moderate","evidence_role":"comparative_mechanism","comparative_observability":"partial","fact_confidence":"High","comparative_confidence":"Moderate"},"mechanism":"Operating processing and component ecosystems and current supply exposure support the bounded PRC chain advantage; U.S./partner operating output is credited and unqualified projects are not counted as delivered capacity."},{"id":"CR-P03","file":"docs/pilots/critical-resources-analysis.json","before":{"confidence":"High","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"High","evidence_role":"comparative_mechanism","comparative_observability":"partial","fact_confidence":"High","comparative_confidence":"High"},"mechanism":"Commodity-specific production, processing and import-reliance observations compare operating supply positions. The judgment concerns the named supply stage, not undisclosed defense demand, inventories or wartime allocation."},{"id":"CR-P04","file":"docs/pilots/critical-resources-analysis.json","before":{"confidence":"Moderate-high","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Moderate-high","evidence_role":"comparative_mechanism","comparative_observability":"partial","fact_confidence":"High","comparative_confidence":"Moderate-high"},"mechanism":"Commodity-specific production, processing and import-reliance observations compare operating supply positions. The judgment concerns the named supply stage, not undisclosed defense demand, inventories or wartime allocation."},{"id":"CR-P05","file":"docs/pilots/critical-resources-analysis.json","before":{"confidence":"High","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"High","evidence_role":"comparative_mechanism","comparative_observability":"partial","fact_confidence":"High","comparative_confidence":"High"},"mechanism":"Commodity-specific production, processing and import-reliance observations compare operating supply positions. The judgment concerns the named supply stage, not undisclosed defense demand, inventories or wartime allocation."},{"id":"CR-P06","file":"docs/pilots/critical-resources-analysis.json","before":{"confidence":"High","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"High","evidence_role":"comparative_mechanism","comparative_observability":"partial","fact_confidence":"High","comparative_confidence":"High"},"mechanism":"Commodity-specific production, processing and import-reliance observations compare operating supply positions. The judgment concerns the named supply stage, not undisclosed defense demand, inventories or wartime allocation."},{"id":"CR-P07","file":"docs/pilots/critical-resources-analysis.json","before":{"confidence":"High","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"High","evidence_role":"comparative_mechanism","comparative_observability":"partial","fact_confidence":"High","comparative_confidence":"High"},"mechanism":"Commodity-specific production, processing and import-reliance observations compare operating supply positions. The judgment concerns the named supply stage, not undisclosed defense demand, inventories or wartime allocation."},{"id":"CR-P08","file":"docs/pilots/critical-resources-analysis.json","before":{"confidence":"High","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"High","evidence_role":"split_or_inconclusive","comparative_observability":"limited","fact_confidence":"Not independently assessed","comparative_confidence":"High"},"mechanism":""},{"id":"CR-P09","file":"docs/pilots/critical-resources-analysis.json","before":{"confidence":"High","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"High","evidence_role":"comparative_mechanism","comparative_observability":"partial","fact_confidence":"High","comparative_confidence":"High"},"mechanism":"Commodity-specific production, processing and import-reliance observations compare operating supply positions. The judgment concerns the named supply stage, not undisclosed defense demand, inventories or wartime allocation."},{"id":"CR-P10","file":"docs/pilots/critical-resources-analysis.json","before":{"confidence":"Moderate-low","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Moderate-low","evidence_role":"opposing_side_deficit","comparative_observability":"one-sided","fact_confidence":"Not independently assessed","comparative_confidence":"Moderate-low"},"mechanism":""},{"id":"EI-D01","file":"docs/focuses/economic-industrial.json","before":{"confidence":"High","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"High","evidence_role":"comparative_mechanism","comparative_observability":"partial","fact_confidence":"High","comparative_confidence":"High"},"mechanism":"Cross-border currency, reserve and funding shares demonstrate dollar-system reach; financial reach does not establish successful compellence."},{"id":"EI-D02","file":"docs/focuses/economic-industrial.json","before":{"confidence":"High","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"High","evidence_role":"comparative_mechanism","comparative_observability":"partial","fact_confidence":"High","comparative_confidence":"High"},"mechanism":"Observed manufacturing breadth and value added support scale at the production stage. Supplier density may shorten feedback and coordination, but matched lead time, accepted output, yield/rework and subsidy-inclusive cost are needed to test those downstream mechanisms."},{"id":"EI-D03","file":"docs/focuses/economic-industrial.json","before":{"confidence":"High","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"High","evidence_role":"comparative_mechanism","comparative_observability":"partial","fact_confidence":"High","comparative_confidence":"High"},"mechanism":"Comparative manufacturing value added and product-specific processing concentration establish scale at the named production stages, not matched speed, costs, learning or military surge performance."},{"id":"EI-D04","file":"docs/focuses/economic-industrial.json","before":{"confidence":"Medium-high","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Medium-high","evidence_role":"split_or_inconclusive","comparative_observability":"limited","fact_confidence":"Not independently assessed","comparative_confidence":"Medium-high"},"mechanism":""},{"id":"EI-D05","file":"docs/focuses/economic-industrial.json","before":{"confidence":"Medium-high","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Medium-high","evidence_role":"split_or_inconclusive","comparative_observability":"limited","fact_confidence":"Not independently assessed","comparative_confidence":"Medium-high"},"mechanism":""},{"id":"EI-D06","file":"docs/focuses/economic-industrial.json","before":{"confidence":"Medium","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Medium","evidence_role":"comparative_mechanism","comparative_observability":"limited","fact_confidence":"High","comparative_confidence":"Medium"},"mechanism":"Partner markets, finance and production offer potential complementary coverage only when interoperable enforcement and usable supply are observed; aggregate partner capacity is not automatically taskable."},{"id":"EI-D07","file":"docs/focuses/economic-industrial.json","before":{"confidence":"Medium-high","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":"limited","fact_confidence":"High","comparative_confidence":"Medium-high"},"after":{"confidence":"Medium-high","evidence_role":"split_or_inconclusive","comparative_observability":"limited","fact_confidence":"Not independently assessed","comparative_confidence":"Medium-high"},"mechanism":""},{"id":"EI-D08","file":"docs/focuses/economic-industrial.json","before":{"confidence":"Medium-high","evidence_role":null,"comparative_observability":null,"fact_confidence":null,"comparative_confidence":null},"after":{"confidence":"Medium-high","evidence_role":"split_or_inconclusive","comparative_observability":"limited","fact_confidence":"Not independently assessed","comparative_confidence":"Medium-high"},"mechanism":""}],"remaining_work":["Full-record labels-masked re-adjudication with published inter-reviewer disagreements and empirical calibration has not been performed. A separate AI evidence-first check of three bounded questions is not a substitute for that work or external human peer review.","Scenario-specific defense cap/veto rules and adjacent-label tests require separately declared duration, permissions and mission thresholds; the core defense assessment is intentionally unchanged.","Matched empirical panels and the named maritime work-package comparison remain research needs, not completed results."],"followup_review":{"reviewed_on":"2026-09-19","reviewer_type":"Separate AI reviewer; existing ratings and prior audit masked","scope":["U.S. maintenance evidence versus comparative undersea readiness","Historical shipbuilding-policy evidence versus highest-return investment claims","Historical exposure versus current persuasion and policy effects"],"outcome":"The scoped second reading supports withholding the unsupported comparisons. Integration further distinguishes nonnuclear surface-ship repair evidence from submarine evidence, preserves preliminary-source limits, and avoids attributing observed active-idle improvement to a specific intervention.","boundary":"Not full-record recoding, calibrated validation, external peer review or a new empirical estimate."},"prior_baseline_url":"/api/v1/research-revisions/2026-09-19/baseline"}