{"schema_version":"1.0","id":"2026-09-19","title":"Selective evidence and decision update — September 19, 2026","published_on":"2026-09-19","baseline_as_of":"2026-08-14","prior_synthesis_reviewed_on":"2026-09-06","scope":"Eight claim-linked evidence work packages plus one separate research lead. This is a selective supplement, not a blanket September refresh or a new comparative capability assessment.","boundary":"No capability scores, comparative confidence labels or quantified returns change through this supplement.","sources":[{"id":"RU26-FYP15","source_id":"RU26-FYP15","title":"Outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030)","publisher":"National People’s Congress / State Council","date":"2026-03-16","url":"https://www.ggj.gov.cn/xwzx/szyw/202603/t20260316_49185.htm","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","primary_use":"Current PRC intent on technology substitution, innovation and talent.","limitation":"Policy intent, not achieved performance. Translation of the selected passages is an analytical paraphrase.","observational_period":"Plan period 2026–2030; adopted March 12, 2026","locator":"Chapters 8, 11 and 12","verified_on":"2026-09-19","evidence_tier":"Tier 1","source_origin":"PRC official primary","provenance":"Full Chinese official republication retrieved and selected chapters inspected; State Council English adoption notice independently checked.","language":"Chinese","institutional_family":"National People’s Congress / State Council","kind":"Official plan","original_title":"中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划纲要","analytical_role":"intent","href":"/research-updates/2026-09-19#source-RU26-FYP15"},{"id":"RU26-FYP15-ADOPTION","source_id":"RU26-FYP15-ADOPTION","title":"China adopts law on national development planning","publisher":"State Council / Xinhua","date":"2026-03-13","url":"https://english.www.gov.cn/news/202603/13/content_WS69b36c16c6d00ca5f9a09d9a.html","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","primary_use":"Verify legislative approval of the 15th Five-Year Plan on March 12.","limitation":"Adoption establishes authority, not implementation.","observational_period":"March 12, 2026","locator":"Paragraph reporting approval of the 15th Plan outline","verified_on":"2026-09-19","evidence_tier":"Tier 1","source_origin":"PRC official primary","provenance":"Original publisher or author record inspected for this selective update.","language":"English","institutional_family":"State Council / Xinhua","kind":"Official adoption notice","analytical_role":"intent","href":"/research-updates/2026-09-19#source-RU26-FYP15-ADOPTION"},{"id":"RU26-INNOVATION","source_id":"RU26-INNOVATION","title":"The Contribution of High-Skilled Immigrants to Innovation in the United States","publisher":"Bernstein, Diamond, Jiranaphawiboon, McQuade and Pousada / NBER","date":"2025-08","url":"https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w30797/w30797.pdf","evidence_role":"independent_research","primary_use":"Historical inventor output and collaborator-spillover mechanism.","limitation":"Working paper; inferred immigrant status and proprietary microdata; patent outcomes are not all innovation or a visa-policy effect.","observational_period":"US patents, 1990–2016","locator":"Working Paper 30797, revised August 2025; collaborator-death identification","verified_on":"2026-09-19","evidence_tier":"Tier 2","source_origin":"Independent research","provenance":"Original PDF retrieved; bibliographic first page and coauthor’s NBER research synthesis checked. Underlying proprietary microdata not replicated.","language":"English","institutional_family":"Bernstein, Diamond, Jiranaphawiboon, McQuade and Pousada / NBER","kind":"Independent research","doi":"10.3386/w30797","original_publication_date":"2022-12","analytical_role":"empirical_mechanism","href":"/research-updates/2026-09-19#source-RU26-INNOVATION"},{"id":"RU26-INNOVATION-SUMMARY","source_id":"RU26-INNOVATION-SUMMARY","title":"The Effects of High-Skilled Immigration","publisher":"Amir Kermani and Timothy McQuade / NBER","date":"2025-10-07","url":"https://www.nber.org/reporter/2025number3/effects-high-skilled-immigration","evidence_role":"independent_research","primary_use":"Author explanation of inventor matching and collaborator-death design.","limitation":"Same research family as RU26-INNOVATION, not independent corroboration.","observational_period":"US patents, 1990–2016","locator":"Immigrant Contributions to US Innovation","verified_on":"2026-09-19","evidence_tier":"Tier 2","source_origin":"Independent research","provenance":"Original publisher or author record inspected for this selective update.","language":"English","institutional_family":"Bernstein, Diamond, Jiranaphawiboon, McQuade and Pousada / NBER","kind":"Independent research","analytical_role":"empirical_mechanism","href":"/research-updates/2026-09-19#source-RU26-INNOVATION-SUMMARY"},{"id":"RU26-SHIPBUILDING","source_id":"RU26-SHIPBUILDING","title":"Industrial Policy Implementation: Empirical Evidence from China’s Shipbuilding Industry","publisher":"Barwick, Kalouptsidi and Zahur / Review of Economic Studies","date":"2025-02-18","url":"https://www.restud.com/industrial-policy-implementation-empirical-evidence-from-chinas-shipbuilding-industry/","evidence_role":"independent_research","primary_use":"Differentiate industrial-policy instruments and capacity utilization.","limitation":"Historical commercial shipbuilding and structural-model assumptions; not a naval surge estimate or US cost-benefit result.","observational_period":"Firm data, 1998–2014","locator":"Publisher abstract, findings (i)–(iii)","verified_on":"2026-09-19","evidence_tier":"Tier 2","source_origin":"Independent research","provenance":"Original publisher or author record inspected for this selective update.","language":"English","institutional_family":"Barwick, Kalouptsidi and Zahur / Review of Economic Studies","kind":"Independent research","doi":"10.1093/restud/rdaf011","analytical_role":"empirical_mechanism","href":"/research-updates/2026-09-19#source-RU26-SHIPBUILDING"},{"id":"RU26-ICIO","source_id":"RU26-ICIO","title":"Inter-Country Input-Output tables, 2025 edition","publisher":"OECD","date":"2026-01","url":"https://www.oecd.org/en/data/datasets/inter-country-input-output-tables.html","evidence_role":"intergovernmental_data_or_analysis","primary_use":"Specify value-added dependency checks before aggregating allied output.","limitation":"Lagged sector accounting cannot establish substitution, inventories or wartime availability; no bilateral exposure estimate calculated in this update.","observational_period":"1995–2022","locator":"2025 edition regular ICIO; second revision, mid-January 2026","verified_on":"2026-09-19","evidence_tier":"Tier 1","source_origin":"Intergovernmental","provenance":"Original publisher or author record inspected for this selective update.","language":"English","institutional_family":"OECD","kind":"Intergovernmental dataset","analytical_role":"measurement_method","date_note":"Initial release August 2025; revisions October 2025 and January 2026; exact day not supplied.","href":"/research-updates/2026-09-19#source-RU26-ICIO"},{"id":"RU26-ANAO","source_id":"RU26-ANAO","title":"Defence’s Collins Class Submarines Life of Type Extension — Planning and Implementation","publisher":"Australian National Audit Office","date":"2026-05-22","url":"https://www.anao.gov.au/sites/default/files/2026-05/Auditor-General_Report_2025-26_33.pdf","evidence_role":"independent_oversight","primary_use":"Test the implementation assumptions behind allied submarine bridging capacity.","limitation":"Audit excludes submarine operations and sustainment effectiveness; it does not measure combat availability.","observational_period":"Program since 2016; findings through May 2026","locator":"Report 33 of 2025–26, printed pp. 6–11, especially paragraphs 7–16","verified_on":"2026-09-19","evidence_tier":"Tier 1","source_origin":"Independent official oversight","provenance":"Original publisher or author record inspected for this selective update.","language":"English","institutional_family":"Australian National Audit Office","kind":"Independent oversight","analytical_role":"implementation","href":"/research-updates/2026-09-19#source-RU26-ANAO"},{"id":"RU26-CONTRACTS","source_id":"RU26-CONTRACTS","title":"How China Lends Dataset, Version 2.0","publisher":"AidData at William & Mary","date":"2025-06-25","url":"https://www.aiddata.org/data/how-china-lends-dataset-version-2-0","evidence_role":"independent_research","primary_use":"Distinguish contractual creditor rights from demonstrated strategic compliance.","limitation":"Publicly discoverable contracts are selected; rights are not necessarily exercised. No new matched borrower-case adjudication here.","observational_period":"Contracts signed 1990–2025","locator":"Dataset description and linked searchable contract repository","verified_on":"2026-09-19","evidence_tier":"Tier 2","source_origin":"Independent research","provenance":"Original publisher or author record inspected for this selective update.","language":"English","institutional_family":"AidData at William & Mary","kind":"Independent research","analytical_role":"contractual_mechanism","href":"/research-updates/2026-09-19#source-RU26-CONTRACTS"},{"id":"RU26-COLLATERAL","source_id":"RU26-COLLATERAL","title":"How China Collateralizes","publisher":"Gelpern, Haddad, Horn, Kintzinger, Parks and Trebesch / AidData","date":"2025-06-25","url":"https://www.aiddata.org/publications/how-china-collateralizes","evidence_role":"independent_research","primary_use":"Identify cash/revenue security rather than assume infrastructure seizure.","limitation":"Contractual security does not establish geopolitical compliance or military access.","observational_period":"Public and publicly guaranteed collateralized loans, 2000–2021","locator":"Working Paper 136, abstract and associated dataset","verified_on":"2026-09-19","evidence_tier":"Tier 2","source_origin":"Independent research","provenance":"Original publisher or author record inspected for this selective update.","language":"English","institutional_family":"AidData at William & Mary","kind":"Independent research","analytical_role":"contractual_mechanism","href":"/research-updates/2026-09-19#source-RU26-COLLATERAL"},{"id":"RU26-EADY","source_id":"RU26-EADY","title":"Exposure to the Russian Internet Research Agency foreign influence campaign on Twitter in the 2016 US election and its relationship to attitudes and voting behavior","publisher":"Eady, Paskhalis, Zilinsky, Bonneau, Nagler and Tucker / Nature Communications","date":"2023-01-09","url":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-35576-9","evidence_role":"independent_research","primary_use":"Calibrate natural exposure-to-behavior evidence requirements.","limitation":"Observational null is not zero effect; Russia/Twitter/2016 cannot score PRC influence in 2026.","observational_period":"2016 US election; linked longitudinal sample, n=1,496","locator":"Abstract, Exposure results and Methods","verified_on":"2026-09-19","evidence_tier":"Tier 2","source_origin":"Independent research","provenance":"Original publisher or author record inspected for this selective update.","language":"English","institutional_family":"Eady, Paskhalis, Zilinsky, Bonneau, Nagler and Tucker / Nature Communications","kind":"Independent research","doi":"10.1038/s41467-022-35576-9","analytical_role":"method_calibration","href":"/research-updates/2026-09-19#source-RU26-EADY"},{"id":"RU26-KIEL","source_id":"RU26-KIEL","title":"Ukraine Support Tracker: Europe leads on aid – US weapons remain key","publisher":"Kiel Institute","date":"2026-08-13","url":"https://www.kielinstitut.de/media/news/ukraine-support-tracker-europe-leads-on-aid-us-weapons-remain-key/","evidence_role":"independent_research","primary_use":"Separate aid financing, weapons production and stockpile ownership.","limitation":"Allocations are not arrivals, acceptance or battlefield effect. Do not count European purchases again as US donations.","observational_period":"Allocations through June 2026","locator":"Release dated August 13, 2026; military procurement and PURL discussion","verified_on":"2026-09-19","evidence_tier":"Tier 2","source_origin":"Independent research","provenance":"Original publisher or author record inspected for this selective update.","language":"English","institutional_family":"Kiel Institute","kind":"Independent research","analytical_role":"allocation_evidence","href":"/research-updates/2026-09-19#source-RU26-KIEL"}],"observations":[{"id":"ru26-prc-intent","title":"Update the adaptation hypothesis, not the capability rating","source_ids":["RU26-FYP15","RU26-FYP15-ADOPTION"],"pathway_slugs":["technology-ecosystems","talent-and-discovery","industrial-conversion"],"claim":"The adopted 2026–2030 plan prioritizes core-technology substitution, talent development and computing infrastructure.","observational_period":"Intent for 2026–2030","changes":"Use the 15th Plan as the current intent reference; retain the 14th Plan for promise-versus-delivery checks.","unknowns":"Independent evidence of qualified substitution, adoption and usable output remains necessary.","revision_trigger":"Reassess chokepoint durability when independently verified substitutes meet the relevant performance, yield and deployment requirements.","analytical_role":"intent","temporal_status":"Pre-baseline source newly admitted in this selective supplement.","href":"/research-updates/2026-09-19#ru26-prc-intent"},{"id":"ru26-innovation","title":"Retain collaborative capability, not simply headcount","source_ids":["RU26-INNOVATION","RU26-INNOVATION-SUMMARY"],"pathway_slugs":["talent-and-discovery"],"claim":"Historical patent evidence and collaborator-death comparisons support an immigrant-inventor spillover mechanism.","observational_period":"US patents, 1990–2016","changes":"Track retention together with collaborator output and qualified adoption; headcounts alone miss the mechanism.","unknowns":"The effect of a particular immigration rule or present defense output is unestimated.","revision_trigger":"Revise a retention intervention if matched follow-up shows no improvement in collaboration or adoption despite higher retention.","analytical_role":"empirical_mechanism","temporal_status":"Pre-baseline source newly admitted in this selective supplement.","href":"/research-updates/2026-09-19#ru26-innovation"},{"id":"ru26-shipbuilding","title":"Evaluate instrument choice before subsidizing scale","source_ids":["RU26-SHIPBUILDING"],"pathway_slugs":["industrial-conversion","maritime-renewal"],"claim":"The study finds increased Chinese commercial shipbuilding scale alongside idle capacity and instrument-dependent returns; entry subsidies perform poorly in its model.","observational_period":"Firm data, 1998–2014","changes":"Require separate work-package cases for qualification, production and new entry, including utilization and displaced labor.","unknowns":"The US naval marginal return and strategic option value are not estimated by this study.","revision_trigger":"Stop or redesign expansion when qualified deliveries fail to rise or scarce labor is displaced from higher-priority contracted work.","analytical_role":"empirical_mechanism","temporal_status":"Pre-baseline source newly admitted in this selective supplement.","href":"/research-updates/2026-09-19#ru26-shipbuilding"},{"id":"ru26-dependency","title":"Supplier location is not independence","source_ids":["RU26-ICIO"],"pathway_slugs":["technology-ecosystems","industrial-conversion"],"claim":"OECD ICIO provides a consistent framework to trace upstream value added across borders.","observational_period":"2025 edition, January 2026 revision; observations through 2022","changes":"Require a vintage-specific upstream dependency check before counting partner output as independent redundancy.","unknowns":"No US/PRC/partner sector exposure calculated here; sector accounting cannot establish firm-level substitutability.","revision_trigger":"Revise redundancy claims when validated value-added accounting reveals shared upstream inputs, then test those inputs against current supplier records.","analytical_role":"measurement_method","temporal_status":"Pre-baseline source newly admitted in this selective supplement.","href":"/research-updates/2026-09-19#ru26-dependency"},{"id":"ru26-collins","title":"Gate allied bridging capacity on implementation","source_ids":["RU26-ANAO"],"pathway_slugs":["coalition-capacity","maritime-renewal"],"claim":"ANAO found partly effective Collins life-extension planning and implementation, accumulated delays and a changed delivery approach.","observational_period":"Program since 2016; audit through May 2026","changes":"Treat the bridge as a schedule risk: require accepted milestones and an alternative before counting future contributions.","unknowns":"The audit does not quantify operational availability or guarantee the revised approach.","revision_trigger":"Reassess after independently verified delivery milestones, or immediately if the bridge schedule no longer covers the required interval.","analytical_role":"implementation","temporal_status":"Pre-baseline source newly admitted in this selective supplement.","href":"/research-updates/2026-09-19#ru26-collins"},{"id":"ru26-lending","title":"Test cash-control mechanisms before strategic conclusions","source_ids":["RU26-CONTRACTS","RU26-COLLATERAL"],"pathway_slugs":["financial-trust","partner-value"],"claim":"AidData identifies inspectable loan terms and cash/revenue collateral mechanisms, distinct from automatic infrastructure seizure.","observational_period":"Contracts 1990–2025; collateralized public loans 2000–2021","changes":"Compare financing options on cash-flow restrictions, transparency and restructuring flexibility, then separately test recipient choices.","unknowns":"No contract-to-geopolitical-compliance effect or new case-specific access finding is established.","revision_trigger":"Revise leverage claims when matched contract, enforcement and recipient-decision evidence supports or contradicts the proposed mechanism.","analytical_role":"contractual_mechanism","temporal_status":"Pre-baseline source newly admitted in this selective supplement.","href":"/research-updates/2026-09-19#ru26-lending"},{"id":"ru26-influence","title":"Require exposure-to-behavior conversion evidence","source_ids":["RU26-EADY"],"pathway_slugs":["trusted-information","learning-and-adoption"],"claim":"Linked survey/feed evidence found concentrated exposure and no detectable meaningful relationship to the examined attitude or voting changes.","observational_period":"Russia/Twitter, 2016 US election","changes":"Use natural exposure, behavioral endpoints and detectable-effect reporting to calibrate influence evaluations.","unknowns":"No PRC effectiveness rating follows; platform, actor and period do not match.","revision_trigger":"Admit comparative conversion claims only after matched actor/audience studies with exposure, behavioral outcomes and uncertainty estimates.","analytical_role":"method_calibration","temporal_status":"Pre-baseline source newly admitted in this selective supplement.","href":"/research-updates/2026-09-19#ru26-influence"},{"id":"ru26-coalition-delivery","title":"Separate donor finance from weapons origin","source_ids":["RU26-KIEL"],"pathway_slugs":["coalition-capacity"],"claim":"European aid allocations and continuing reliance on US weapons coexist in the June 2026 tracker update.","observational_period":"Allocations through June 2026","changes":"Record financier, producer and stockpile owner separately; verify physical delivery before counting operational contribution.","unknowns":"Replacement production, arrival and operational acceptance remain separate evidence needs.","revision_trigger":"Revise mutual-dependence assumptions when delivery-level data show a sustained change in production or stockpile reliance.","analytical_role":"allocation_evidence","temporal_status":"Published August 13: after the August 12 diplomacy cutoff, before the August 14 capstone cutoff; admitted September 19, not a retroactive refresh of diplomacy.","href":"/research-updates/2026-09-19#ru26-coalition-delivery"}],"leads":[{"id":"ru26-tiva-k-lead","title":"Seeing the capital behind trade: Unveiling hidden interdependencies","publisher":"OECD","date":"2026-09-18","url":"https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/seeing-the-capital-behind-trade_913e24ec-en.html","doi":"10.1787/913e24ec-en","pathway_slugs":["technology-ecosystems","industrial-conversion"],"status":"Research lead — not admitted evidence","limitation":"Listing and abstract verified; capital-flow data, underlying methods and vintage have not been independently validated here. No numerical result or capability revision is admitted.","admission_requirements":"Retrieve the full methods and data vintage; reproduce a bounded capital-embodied exposure measure and compare it to conventional TiVA without double counting.","temporal_status":"Post-baseline and post-September 6 synthesis; no criticism of the frozen baseline.","href":"/research-updates/2026-09-19#ru26-tiva-k-lead"}],"decision_updates":{"coalition-capacity":{"constraint":"Authorization, accepted delivery milestones and producer/stockpile dependence must all match the intended contribution; financing alone is not usable capacity.","measure":"Track financier → producer/stockpile owner → arrival → accepted contribution, plus independently checked Collins bridge milestones; count each contribution once."},"industrial-conversion":{"us_action":"Fund the demonstrated binding constraint through separately costed qualification, production and new-entry options; require utilization, delivery and labor-displacement reporting before scaling.","research":"Which work package raises accepted output without displacing scarcer labor, and do nominally alternative suppliers share upstream dependencies?"},"talent-and-discovery":{"measure":"Track retained researchers, collaborator output and qualified adoption together; use matched cohorts where feasible, not research spending or headcount alone.","research":"Which retention or collaboration bottleneck is binding today? Historical inventor spillovers motivate the mechanism, not a quantified return to a particular visa rule."},"technology-ecosystems":{"constraint":"Chokepoint durability depends on independently observed substitution and adoption; PRC plans establish adaptation intent only. Supplier geography does not establish upstream independence.","measure":"Qualified substitute performance, yields, deployment and retained ecosystem participation; separately trace vintage-specific upstream value added before assuming allied redundancy."},"financial-trust":{"us_action":"Offer dependable financing and transparent terms; compare cash-flow restrictions and restructuring options, then test whether borrower decisions actually change.","research":"Which contractual rights were exercised, with what fiscal consequences and recipient choices? Neither a loan total nor collateral clause establishes strategic compliance."},"partner-value":{"measure":"Partner uptake and repeated voluntary participation, matched against financing terms, fiscal restrictions and delivery; distinguish stated preferences from implemented choices."},"trusted-information":{"measure":"Natural audience exposure → comprehension or trust → behavior, reporting detectable effects and alternative explanations; reach or removals alone do not establish conversion."},"learning-and-adoption":{"research":"Which matched interventions change behavior or qualified adoption under natural exposure, and which apparent nulls remain too imprecise to be informative?"},"maritime-renewal":{"us_action":"Compare a bounded repair/qualification work package, new capacity and the allied bridge against the same required availability window; stage commitments behind design, workforce and acceptance gates.","switch":"Reopen the option comparison if design or workforce gates fail, accepted deliveries slip, or the allied bridge no longer covers the required interval; do not assume repair is always the highest-return increment.","research":"For a named ship-class work package, establish accepted hull-days by deadline, incremental lifecycle resources, displaced work and uncertainty before ranking returns."}},"policy_comparisons":[{"id":"ru26-maritime-options","title":"Maritime renewal: compare alternatives against a common availability window","pathway_slugs":["maritime-renewal","industrial-conversion","coalition-capacity"],"source_ids":["RU26-SHIPBUILDING","RU26-ANAO"],"assessment_type":"Qualitative policy inference; not a measured cost-benefit ranking","objective":"For the next named ship-class availability requirement, compare accepted usable hull-days by its specified deadline. This supplement does not select a class, deadline or budget without program data.","options":[{"id":"repair-qualification","title":"Repair and qualify existing capacity","potential":"May recover availability sooner if the binding task is executable.","constraint":"Requires a scoped work package, materials, qualified workers and acceptance schedule; extra work can displace another repair.","gate":"Approve the next increment only with baseline schedule, workforce loading, alternatives and accepted-output reporting."},{"id":"new-capacity","title":"Add production or yard capacity","potential":"May widen longer-term output if qualified demand and complementary inputs exist.","constraint":"Construction, qualification and utilization lag; entry alone need not produce useful capacity.","gate":"Require credible demand, phased qualification, utilization and separate accounting for displaced labor."},{"id":"allied-bridge","title":"Use an authorized allied bridge","potential":"May cover a specified gap without duplicating every domestic capability.","constraint":"Sovereign permission and independently verified delivery timing remain necessary; Collins audit raises implementation risk, not measured unavailability.","gate":"Count only an accepted contribution and keep an alternative until bridge milestones are met."}],"common_measure":"Accepted hull-days for the stated mission and interval; incremental lifecycle resources; schedule uncertainty; work displaced elsewhere.","decision_rule":"Prioritize only after comparable program cases exist. Sequence scope/qualification before expansion when those are binding; retain alternatives if bridge timing is uncertain.","unestimated":["Marginal cost per accepted hull-day","Comparative returns across alternatives","Class-specific workforce displacement","Operational availability and combat effect"],"revision_trigger":"Reopen the decision if scope, deadline, workforce availability, partner authorization or independently verified milestones change.","href":"/research-updates/2026-09-19#ru26-maritime-options"}],"dataset_protocols":[{"id":"ru26-icio-protocol","source_ids":["RU26-ICIO"],"status":"Specified, not executed","question":"How much PRC value added is embodied in a partner electronics export bundle, compared with US value added?","dataset":"OECD regular ICIO 2025 edition, January 2026 revision, year 2022; use the published 2016–2022 CSV bundle and edition annex.","steps":["Download the edition-specific CSV and annex from the cited OECD dataset page; record SHA-256, vintage and sector mapping.","Form the intermediate-use matrix Z, gross output x and value-added vector v; reconcile accounts and currency units before calculating.","Set A = Z diag(x)^(-1), excluding or explicitly handling zero-output sectors; compute L = (I - A)^(-1).","Define e as the selected partner-sector gross-export vector, excluding domestic sales and avoiding aggregation overlap. Compute diag(v / x) L e.","Sum origin-sector contributions separately for PRC and US; divide each by the selected export value. Reconcile the all-origin sum against exports and report residuals, revisions and aggregation limits."],"result":null,"limitation":"No downloaded matrix or computed bilateral estimate is claimed. This specification does not establish current dependence, substitutability, ownership or wartime access.","href":"/research-updates/2026-09-19#ru26-icio-protocol"}],"href":"/research-updates/2026-09-19","counts":{"admitted_sources":11,"observations":8,"research_leads":1,"policy_comparisons":1}}