U.S. advantage · Renew the talent and discovery base
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Economic & Industrial Statecraft · Change
Watch delivery, not announcements.
Sixteen indicators track whether financial leverage, physical exposure, coalition implementation, and operating capacity are changing. Eight priorities address the constraints visible in the evidence.
16 indicators 8 policy priorities Observation dates preserved
Indicators
Measures that can change the call.
Where public outcome data do not exist, the gap is stated directly. A funding award, agreement, or announced facility is not counted as delivered capacity.
Indicator Baseline Signal Why it matters
EI-I01 · System leverage Dollar share of disclosed reserves Updated: Quarterly
57.13% As of 2026 Q1
Measurement definition
Measure Stock share
Unit Percent of allocated reserves
Numerator Allocated official foreign-exchange reserves held in U.S. dollars
Denominator / baseline Total allocated official foreign-exchange reserves reported to COFER
Treatment Current-value composition; exchange rates can change shares without transactions
Revision policy Replace with each IMF quarterly vintage and retain the observation date
Broadly stable; valuation-sensitive
Tracks one foundation of financial reach, not sanction effectiveness by itself.
EI-I02 · System exposure U.S. net international investment position Updated: Quarterly
-$21.27 trillion As of 2026 Q1
Measurement definition
Measure Net financial-position stock
Unit Current U.S. dollars
Numerator U.S.-owned foreign financial assets minus foreign-owned U.S. financial assets
Denominator / baseline No denominator in the headline level; GDP and gross-asset ratios are separate measures
Treatment Nominal market-value position affected by transactions, prices, and exchange rates
Revision policy Use the latest BEA quarterly vintage and identify revisions
Large external balance-sheet exposure
Provides context on deep capital-market integration and valuation exposure.
EI-I03 · Industrial structure Semiconductor production value-added share Updated: Annual
China 30% · Taiwan 23% · U.S. 19% · South Korea 11% As of 2024
Measurement definition
Measure Annual value-added share
Unit Percent of global semiconductor manufacturing value added
Numerator Economy-level semiconductor manufacturing value added in the NSF estimate
Denominator / baseline Global semiconductor manufacturing value added in the same estimate
Treatment Source-defined value added; not wafer starts, yield, or leading-edge-node capacity
Revision policy Update only with a comparable NSF vintage and preserve methodological breaks
Geographically concentrated
Shows production weight, while remaining distinct from leading-edge node capacity.
EI-I04 · Innovation U.S. R&D intensity Updated: Annual
3.4% of GDP As of 2024 / latest harmonized estimate
Measurement definition
Measure Annual intensity ratio
Unit Percent of GDP
Numerator U.S. gross domestic expenditures on research and development
Denominator / baseline U.S. gross domestic product for the harmonized observation year
Treatment Source-defined ratio; measures inputs rather than innovation outcomes
Revision policy Use the latest harmonized NSF vintage and disclose underlying-series revisions
High but contested
Measures input intensity; translation to production must be tested separately.
EI-I05 · Innovation China share of AI international-priority patents Updated: Annual with lag
75% As of 2024
Measurement definition
Measure Patent-family share
Unit Percent of AI international-priority patent families
Numerator AI international-priority patent families attributed to China
Denominator / baseline Worldwide AI international-priority patent families in the cited NSF series
Treatment Counts protected invention families; does not weight quality, citation impact, or deployment
Revision policy Update with comparable annual vintages and retain the publication lag
High and rising
Signals scale in protected invention; quality and deployment require separate evidence.
EI-I06 · Input concentration Average top-refiner share, key minerals excluding rare earths Updated: Annual
72% As of 2025
Measurement definition
Measure Basket concentration share
Unit Average percent share
Numerator Leading refining country's share for each mineral in the IEA basket
Denominator / baseline Global refined output for each covered mineral, averaged excluding rare earths
Treatment IEA basket and stage definitions; the average can hide material-specific variation
Revision policy Update with each IEA outlook and preserve basket or methodology changes
Up from 70% in 2023
Tracks whether diversification changes the actual processing bottleneck.
EI-I07 · Coercive exposure Mineral tariff codes under Chinese export controls Updated: Event-driven
Three times the 2023 count As of 2026 report
Measurement definition
Measure Policy-scope index
Unit Multiple of the 2023 tariff-code count
Numerator Mineral tariff codes covered by Chinese export-control measures in the cited report
Denominator / baseline Comparable covered tariff-code count in 2023
Treatment Counts formal product scope, not license denials, shipment disruption, or economic effect
Revision policy Revise after an implemented control change or comparable IEA recount
Expanded
Shows expansion of controlled product scope; license approvals and realized shortages remain separate.
EI-I08 · Diversification finance Advanced-economy public finance commitments for critical minerals Updated: Annual
About $65 billion As of 2025
Measurement definition
Measure Cumulative public-finance commitment
Unit Nominal U.S. dollars
Numerator Advanced-economy public-finance commitments identified by the IEA
Denominator / baseline No denominator; this is a headline cumulative commitment level
Treatment May combine unlike instruments; does not equal disbursement, qualification, or output
Revision policy Update with each IEA inventory and identify scope changes where disclosed
More than four times 2023
Measures commitment; disbursement and qualified output are the delivery tests.
EI-I09 · Project delivery CHIPS milestones reported complete Updated: At each GAO or Commerce portfolio release
24 of 161 As of July 2025
Measurement definition
Measure Unweighted milestone completion count
Unit Completed milestones out of total contractual milestones
Numerator Milestones that recipients reported complete
Denominator / baseline 161 milestones in the reviewed portfolio, whether or not all were due by the cutoff
Treatment Milestones differ in value and timing; completion is not equivalent to qualified output
Revision policy Replace only with a comparable portfolio release and preserve the reporting cutoff
Early portfolio stage
Separates award announcements from delivery.
EI-I10 · Project delivery CHIPS-funded projects certified complete Updated: At each portfolio release
1 leading-edge facility As of June 2025
Measurement definition
Measure Certified facility count
Unit Facilities
Numerator CHIPS-supported leading-edge facilities certified complete
Denominator / baseline No comparable completed-versus-due denominator is published in this headline
Treatment Certification is not product qualification, sustained yield, utilization, or cost competitiveness
Revision policy Update with GAO or Commerce certification records and retain facility scope
First completion
Marks the first completed facility; product qualification, yield, utilization, and cost remain to be assessed.
EI-I11 · Energy resilience Russian share of EU gas imports Updated: Annual / phase-out milestones
12% As of 2025
Measurement definition
Measure Import-flow share
Unit Percent of EU gas imports
Numerator EU gas imports originating in Russia
Denominator / baseline Total EU gas imports in the same period
Treatment Physical import share; changes reflect Russian volumes and other-supplier volumes
Revision policy Update with comparable EU annual data and record legal milestones separately
Down from 45% in 2021
A physical dependency outcome rather than a policy-activity count.
EI-I12 · Energy resilience Russian piped-gas deliveries to the EU Updated: Quarterly / annual
Down 90% from 2021 As of 2025
Measurement definition
Measure Physical-flow change
Unit Percent change from 2021
Numerator Russian pipeline-gas volume delivered to the EU in the observation year
Denominator / baseline Russian pipeline-gas volume delivered to the EU in 2021
Treatment Pipeline flow only; excludes the separate LNG channel and total transition cost
Revision policy Use comparable IEA flow vintages and preserve the 2021 baseline
Sharp diversification
Cross-checks the import-share measure with physical flow.
EI-I13 · Maritime resilience U.S. oceangoing commercial ship construction Updated: Annual
Routinely 3–5 ships per year As of MARAD strategy study, 2026
Measurement definition
Measure Annual production flow
Unit Oceangoing commercial ships completed per year
Numerator Qualifying oceangoing commercial ships constructed in the United States
Denominator / baseline One calendar year; no tonnage or complexity weighting in the headline
Treatment Hull count does not measure tonnage, vessel complexity, repair, or naval output
Revision policy Update with a comparable MARAD or official annual construction series
Capacity constraint
A concrete regeneration bottleneck distinct from port and naval capacity.
EI-I14 · Campaign outcome Russia macroeconomic growth effect Updated: When a comparable causal estimate is published
About -6 percentage points versus counterfactual in 2022; no statistically different result in 2023–24 As of GAO analysis, 2025
Measurement definition
Measure Model-estimated causal effect
Unit Percentage-point difference in GDP growth
Numerator Estimated observed-minus-counterfactual Russian GDP growth effect
Denominator / baseline Model counterfactual for Russian growth absent the assessed shock package
Treatment Not a raw growth rate or one-instrument estimate; later effects were not statistically different
Revision policy Update only with a comparable causal estimate and preserve uncertainty intervals
Initial shock; adaptation
Demonstrates why a campaign needs time-bounded outcome targets rather than designation totals.
EI-I15 · Coalition delivery IPEF crisis-response performance Updated: After exercises or activations
No comprehensive public response-time or exercise-outcome series located As of 2026-08-07
Measurement definition
Measure Missing outcome series
Unit Not yet defined from public evidence
Numerator Observed response time, coordinated actions, or resolved supply shortfalls
Denominator / baseline A comparable disruption or exercise baseline
Treatment Meetings and agreements are inputs and are not substituted for performance observations
Revision policy Create a baseline only after a public exercise, activation, or after-action result
Unknown
Without comparable response-time or exercise results, coalition crisis performance cannot yet be judged from public evidence.
EI-I16 · Control effectiveness Advanced-chip diversion and foreign availability Updated: Annual outcome review
No consolidated public outcome series located As of 2026-08-07
Measurement definition
Measure Missing outcome series
Unit Not yet defined from public evidence
Numerator Observed access to diverted or foreign-available advanced-chip capability
Denominator / baseline Controlled capability and a matched pre-control or comparator baseline
Treatment Rule counts, licenses, seizures, and anecdotes are not combined into a synthetic measure
Revision policy Create or update only when a consolidated reproducible outcome series is public
Unknown
The decisive control variable is access to comparable capability, not the number of rules.
Policy priorities
Where action could strengthen leverage.
These options target constraints identified in the research. Each includes observable evidence for judging whether implementation is producing real capacity or strategic effect.
01
Report progress from authorization through sustained output For every industrial initiative, report authorized, obligated, disbursed, under-construction, equipment-installed, qualified, operating, and sustained-throughput stages separately.
Evidence of progress Share of projects and dollars at each stage, together with schedule variance and unit-cost evidence.
02
Map the binding stage of each dependency Trace strategic products through mine or feedstock, processing, tools, components, qualification, logistics, maintenance, and workforce before assigning a vulnerability.
Evidence of progress Concentration, time-to-substitute, qualified capacity, inventories, and recovery time at the actual bottleneck.
03
Define the objective—and when to adjust or end the policy Define the target behavior or capacity, transmission mechanism, time horizon, acceptable sender cost, escalation bounds, and conditions for tightening, adapting, or ending the instrument.
Evidence of progress Observed target behavior and capacity versus a stated counterfactual—not designations, tariffs, or license counts alone.
04
Pre-negotiate coalition implementation Agree definitions, coverage, licensing, exceptions, enforcement information, burden sharing, and review schedules before a crisis.
Evidence of progress Jurisdictional coverage, implementation lag, exception rate, enforcement capacity, and exercise response time.
05
Finance balanced chains and credible demand Pair upstream projects with processing, components, workforce, infrastructure, qualification, and long-duration offtake instead of financing isolated assets.
Evidence of progress Qualified downstream capacity relative to upstream output, contracted demand, cost gap, and time to commercial throughput.
06
Stress-test physical and institutional resilience Run disruption exercises against minerals, ports, energy, payments, cloud, components, and key logistics; publish bounded after-action findings.
Evidence of progress Detection time, inventory days, alternate-route activation, output loss, recovery time, and unresolved authorities.
07
Protect the foundations of financial leverage Treat rule of law, market depth, policy predictability, payments resilience, and coalition legitimacy as capabilities that require maintenance.
Evidence of progress Reserve and funding shares adjusted for valuation, market liquidity, partner participation, and substitution behavior.
08
Track adaptation as aggressively as pressure Maintain a countermeasure register covering rerouting, front companies, technical substitution, fiscal support, retaliation, inventory use, and third-country intermediation.
Evidence of progress Time and cost to route around the instrument, residual denial, sender leakage, and policy update cycle.