Economic & Industrial Statecraft · Change
Watch delivery, not announcements.
Sixteen indicators track whether financial leverage, physical exposure, coalition implementation, and operating capacity are changing. Eight priorities address the constraints visible in the evidence.
16 indicators8 policy prioritiesObservation dates preserved
Indicators
Measures that can change the call.
Where public outcome data do not exist, the gap is stated directly. A funding award, agreement, or announced facility is not counted as delivered capacity.
IndicatorBaselineSignalWhy it matters
EI-I01 · System leverageDollar share of disclosed reservesUpdated: Quarterly
57.13%As of 2026 Q1
Measurement definition
- Measure
- Stock share
- Unit
- Percent of allocated reserves
- Numerator
- Allocated official foreign-exchange reserves held in U.S. dollars
- Denominator / baseline
- Total allocated official foreign-exchange reserves reported to COFER
- Treatment
- Current-value composition; exchange rates can change shares without transactions
- Revision policy
- Replace with each IMF quarterly vintage and retain the observation date
Broadly stable; valuation-sensitive
Tracks one foundation of financial reach, not sanction effectiveness by itself.
EI-I02 · System exposureU.S. net international investment positionUpdated: Quarterly
-$21.27 trillionAs of 2026 Q1
Measurement definition
- Measure
- Net financial-position stock
- Unit
- Current U.S. dollars
- Numerator
- U.S.-owned foreign financial assets minus foreign-owned U.S. financial assets
- Denominator / baseline
- No denominator in the headline level; GDP and gross-asset ratios are separate measures
- Treatment
- Nominal market-value position affected by transactions, prices, and exchange rates
- Revision policy
- Use the latest BEA quarterly vintage and identify revisions
Large external balance-sheet exposure
Provides context on deep capital-market integration and valuation exposure.
EI-I03 · Industrial structureSemiconductor production value-added shareUpdated: Annual
China 30% · Taiwan 23% · U.S. 19% · South Korea 11%As of 2024
Measurement definition
- Measure
- Annual value-added share
- Unit
- Percent of global semiconductor manufacturing value added
- Numerator
- Economy-level semiconductor manufacturing value added in the NSF estimate
- Denominator / baseline
- Global semiconductor manufacturing value added in the same estimate
- Treatment
- Source-defined value added; not wafer starts, yield, or leading-edge-node capacity
- Revision policy
- Update only with a comparable NSF vintage and preserve methodological breaks
Geographically concentrated
Shows production weight, while remaining distinct from leading-edge node capacity.
EI-I04 · InnovationU.S. R&D intensityUpdated: Annual
3.4% of GDPAs of 2024 / latest harmonized estimate
Measurement definition
- Measure
- Annual intensity ratio
- Unit
- Percent of GDP
- Numerator
- U.S. gross domestic expenditures on research and development
- Denominator / baseline
- U.S. gross domestic product for the harmonized observation year
- Treatment
- Source-defined ratio; measures inputs rather than innovation outcomes
- Revision policy
- Use the latest harmonized NSF vintage and disclose underlying-series revisions
High but contested
Measures input intensity; translation to production must be tested separately.
EI-I05 · InnovationChina share of AI international-priority patentsUpdated: Annual with lag
75%As of 2024
Measurement definition
- Measure
- Patent-family share
- Unit
- Percent of AI international-priority patent families
- Numerator
- AI international-priority patent families attributed to China
- Denominator / baseline
- Worldwide AI international-priority patent families in the cited NSF series
- Treatment
- Counts protected invention families; does not weight quality, citation impact, or deployment
- Revision policy
- Update with comparable annual vintages and retain the publication lag
High and rising
Signals scale in protected invention; quality and deployment require separate evidence.
EI-I06 · Input concentrationAverage top-refiner share, key minerals excluding rare earthsUpdated: Annual
72%As of 2025
Measurement definition
- Measure
- Basket concentration share
- Unit
- Average percent share
- Numerator
- Leading refining country's share for each mineral in the IEA basket
- Denominator / baseline
- Global refined output for each covered mineral, averaged excluding rare earths
- Treatment
- IEA basket and stage definitions; the average can hide material-specific variation
- Revision policy
- Update with each IEA outlook and preserve basket or methodology changes
Up from 70% in 2023
Tracks whether diversification changes the actual processing bottleneck.
EI-I07 · Coercive exposureMineral tariff codes under Chinese export controlsUpdated: Event-driven
Three times the 2023 countAs of 2026 report
Measurement definition
- Measure
- Policy-scope index
- Unit
- Multiple of the 2023 tariff-code count
- Numerator
- Mineral tariff codes covered by Chinese export-control measures in the cited report
- Denominator / baseline
- Comparable covered tariff-code count in 2023
- Treatment
- Counts formal product scope, not license denials, shipment disruption, or economic effect
- Revision policy
- Revise after an implemented control change or comparable IEA recount
Expanded
Shows expansion of controlled product scope; license approvals and realized shortages remain separate.
EI-I08 · Diversification financeAdvanced-economy public finance commitments for critical mineralsUpdated: Annual
About $65 billionAs of 2025
Measurement definition
- Measure
- Cumulative public-finance commitment
- Unit
- Nominal U.S. dollars
- Numerator
- Advanced-economy public-finance commitments identified by the IEA
- Denominator / baseline
- No denominator; this is a headline cumulative commitment level
- Treatment
- May combine unlike instruments; does not equal disbursement, qualification, or output
- Revision policy
- Update with each IEA inventory and identify scope changes where disclosed
More than four times 2023
Measures commitment; disbursement and qualified output are the delivery tests.
EI-I09 · Project deliveryCHIPS milestones reported completeUpdated: At each GAO or Commerce portfolio release
24 of 161As of July 2025
Measurement definition
- Measure
- Unweighted milestone completion count
- Unit
- Completed milestones out of total contractual milestones
- Numerator
- Milestones that recipients reported complete
- Denominator / baseline
- 161 milestones in the reviewed portfolio, whether or not all were due by the cutoff
- Treatment
- Milestones differ in value and timing; completion is not equivalent to qualified output
- Revision policy
- Replace only with a comparable portfolio release and preserve the reporting cutoff
Early portfolio stage
Separates award announcements from delivery.
EI-I10 · Project deliveryCHIPS-funded projects certified completeUpdated: At each portfolio release
1 leading-edge facilityAs of June 2025
Measurement definition
- Measure
- Certified facility count
- Unit
- Facilities
- Numerator
- CHIPS-supported leading-edge facilities certified complete
- Denominator / baseline
- No comparable completed-versus-due denominator is published in this headline
- Treatment
- Certification is not product qualification, sustained yield, utilization, or cost competitiveness
- Revision policy
- Update with GAO or Commerce certification records and retain facility scope
First completion
Marks the first completed facility; product qualification, yield, utilization, and cost remain to be assessed.
EI-I11 · Energy resilienceRussian share of EU gas importsUpdated: Annual / phase-out milestones
12%As of 2025
Measurement definition
- Measure
- Import-flow share
- Unit
- Percent of EU gas imports
- Numerator
- EU gas imports originating in Russia
- Denominator / baseline
- Total EU gas imports in the same period
- Treatment
- Physical import share; changes reflect Russian volumes and other-supplier volumes
- Revision policy
- Update with comparable EU annual data and record legal milestones separately
Down from 45% in 2021
A physical dependency outcome rather than a policy-activity count.
EI-I12 · Energy resilienceRussian piped-gas deliveries to the EUUpdated: Quarterly / annual
Down 90% from 2021As of 2025
Measurement definition
- Measure
- Physical-flow change
- Unit
- Percent change from 2021
- Numerator
- Russian pipeline-gas volume delivered to the EU in the observation year
- Denominator / baseline
- Russian pipeline-gas volume delivered to the EU in 2021
- Treatment
- Pipeline flow only; excludes the separate LNG channel and total transition cost
- Revision policy
- Use comparable IEA flow vintages and preserve the 2021 baseline
Sharp diversification
Cross-checks the import-share measure with physical flow.
EI-I13 · Maritime resilienceU.S. oceangoing commercial ship constructionUpdated: Annual
Routinely 3–5 ships per yearAs of MARAD strategy study, 2026
Measurement definition
- Measure
- Annual production flow
- Unit
- Oceangoing commercial ships completed per year
- Numerator
- Qualifying oceangoing commercial ships constructed in the United States
- Denominator / baseline
- One calendar year; no tonnage or complexity weighting in the headline
- Treatment
- Hull count does not measure tonnage, vessel complexity, repair, or naval output
- Revision policy
- Update with a comparable MARAD or official annual construction series
Capacity constraint
A concrete regeneration bottleneck distinct from port and naval capacity.
EI-I14 · Campaign outcomeRussia macroeconomic growth effectUpdated: When a comparable causal estimate is published
About -6 percentage points versus counterfactual in 2022; no statistically different result in 2023–24As of GAO analysis, 2025
Measurement definition
- Measure
- Model-estimated causal effect
- Unit
- Percentage-point difference in GDP growth
- Numerator
- Estimated observed-minus-counterfactual Russian GDP growth effect
- Denominator / baseline
- Model counterfactual for Russian growth absent the assessed shock package
- Treatment
- Not a raw growth rate or one-instrument estimate; later effects were not statistically different
- Revision policy
- Update only with a comparable causal estimate and preserve uncertainty intervals
Initial shock; adaptation
Demonstrates why a campaign needs time-bounded outcome targets rather than designation totals.
EI-I15 · Coalition deliveryIPEF crisis-response performanceUpdated: After exercises or activations
No comprehensive public response-time or exercise-outcome series locatedAs of 2026-08-07
Measurement definition
- Measure
- Missing outcome series
- Unit
- Not yet defined from public evidence
- Numerator
- Observed response time, coordinated actions, or resolved supply shortfalls
- Denominator / baseline
- A comparable disruption or exercise baseline
- Treatment
- Meetings and agreements are inputs and are not substituted for performance observations
- Revision policy
- Create a baseline only after a public exercise, activation, or after-action result
Unknown
Without comparable response-time or exercise results, coalition crisis performance cannot yet be judged from public evidence.
EI-I16 · Control effectivenessAdvanced-chip diversion and foreign availabilityUpdated: Annual outcome review
No consolidated public outcome series locatedAs of 2026-08-07
Measurement definition
- Measure
- Missing outcome series
- Unit
- Not yet defined from public evidence
- Numerator
- Observed access to diverted or foreign-available advanced-chip capability
- Denominator / baseline
- Controlled capability and a matched pre-control or comparator baseline
- Treatment
- Rule counts, licenses, seizures, and anecdotes are not combined into a synthetic measure
- Revision policy
- Create or update only when a consolidated reproducible outcome series is public
Unknown
The decisive control variable is access to comparable capability, not the number of rules.
Policy priorities
Where action could strengthen leverage.
These options target constraints identified in the research. Each includes observable evidence for judging whether implementation is producing real capacity or strategic effect.
01
Report progress from authorization through sustained output
For every industrial initiative, report authorized, obligated, disbursed, under-construction, equipment-installed, qualified, operating, and sustained-throughput stages separately.
- Evidence of progress
- Share of projects and dollars at each stage, together with schedule variance and unit-cost evidence.
Map the binding stage of each dependency
Trace strategic products through mine or feedstock, processing, tools, components, qualification, logistics, maintenance, and workforce before assigning a vulnerability.
- Evidence of progress
- Concentration, time-to-substitute, qualified capacity, inventories, and recovery time at the actual bottleneck.
Define the objective—and when to adjust or end the policy
Define the target behavior or capacity, transmission mechanism, time horizon, acceptable sender cost, escalation bounds, and conditions for tightening, adapting, or ending the instrument.
- Evidence of progress
- Observed target behavior and capacity versus a stated counterfactual—not designations, tariffs, or license counts alone.
Pre-negotiate coalition implementation
Agree definitions, coverage, licensing, exceptions, enforcement information, burden sharing, and review schedules before a crisis.
- Evidence of progress
- Jurisdictional coverage, implementation lag, exception rate, enforcement capacity, and exercise response time.
Finance balanced chains and credible demand
Pair upstream projects with processing, components, workforce, infrastructure, qualification, and long-duration offtake instead of financing isolated assets.
- Evidence of progress
- Qualified downstream capacity relative to upstream output, contracted demand, cost gap, and time to commercial throughput.
Stress-test physical and institutional resilience
Run disruption exercises against minerals, ports, energy, payments, cloud, components, and key logistics; publish bounded after-action findings.
- Evidence of progress
- Detection time, inventory days, alternate-route activation, output loss, recovery time, and unresolved authorities.
Protect the foundations of financial leverage
Treat rule of law, market depth, policy predictability, payments resilience, and coalition legitimacy as capabilities that require maintenance.
- Evidence of progress
- Reserve and funding shares adjusted for valuation, market liquidity, partner participation, and substitution behavior.
Track adaptation as aggressively as pressure
Maintain a countermeasure register covering rerouting, front companies, technical substitution, fiscal support, retaliation, inventory use, and third-country intermediation.
- Evidence of progress
- Time and cost to route around the instrument, residual denial, sender leakage, and policy update cycle.