Open every source behind the findings.

Evidence roleofficial primary or output

Institutional familyPRC State Council / National People's Congress

ProvenanceOfficial PRC national development plan

Analytical useOfficial objectives and priority sectors for industrial upgrading, semiconductors, AI, quantum, space, digital infrastructure, and supply security.

LimitA plan establishes policy direction and targets, not completed projects, qualified output, commercial viability, technology performance, or strategic effect.

Evidence roleofficial primary or output

Institutional familyPRC Ministry of Commerce / General Administration of Customs

ProvenanceOfficial PRC export-control announcement

Analytical useControlled natural and high-specification synthetic graphite scope, licensing process, legal basis, and effective date.

LimitThe rule establishes legal scope and stated intent, not licensing volume, export realization, anode qualification, market impact, or supply interruption.

Evidence roleindependent research

Institutional familyAmerican Economic Association

ProvenanceOriginal public record published by American Economic Association.

Analytical usetransshipment/evasion evidence.

Limitspecific product/country setting.

Evidence roleindependent research

Institutional familyAmerican Economic Journal: Economic Policy

ProvenanceOriginal public record published by American Economic Journal: Economic Policy.

Analytical usesanctions effect plus adaptive evasion.

Limitoil-market case may not generalize to technology controls.

Evidence roleindependent research

Institutional familyBank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies

ProvenanceOriginal public record published by Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies.

Analytical usemodel-based boundary on expected coercive effect.

Limitresults depend on model structure and case assumptions.

Evidence roleofficial primary or output

Institutional familyPRC Ministry of Industry and Information Technology

ProvenanceOfficial PRC industrial statistics

Analytical useOfficial 2025 commercial ship-completion, new-order, and orderbook shares used to corroborate industrial scale.

LimitCommercial deadweight-ton and order measures do not establish naval complexity, quality, repair capacity, military conversion, workforce readiness, or combat effectiveness.

Evidence roleofficial primary or output

Institutional familyCouncil of the European Union

ProvenanceOriginal public record published by Council of the European Union.

Analytical usescale and continuing policy coordination.

Limitaggregate trade and statements do not measure unity under major cost.

Evidence roleofficial primary or output

Institutional familyNational People's Congress of the PRC / PRC Ministry of Commerce

ProvenanceOfficial PRC law enacted by the National People's Congress and republished in full by the Ministry of Commerce

Analytical useStatutory scope, authorities, end-use and end-user controls, control lists, temporary controls, and extraterritorial provisions.

LimitThe law establishes authority and procedure, not how frequently powers are used, implementation quality, compliance, economic effect, or strategic outcome.

Evidence roleofficial primary or output

Institutional familyPRC Ministry of Commerce / General Administration of Customs

ProvenanceOfficial PRC export-control announcement

Analytical useControlled product scope, licensing requirement, legal basis, and effective date for gallium and germanium items.

LimitThe rule establishes legal scope and stated intent, not licensing volume, realized export reductions, price effects, downstream shortages, or military allocation.

Evidence roleofficial primary or output

Institutional familyPRC Ministry of Commerce / General Administration of Customs

ProvenanceOfficial PRC export-control announcement

Analytical useControlled samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, and yttrium forms, licensing requirement, and effective date.

LimitThe rule establishes legal scope and stated intent, not license decisions, export volumes, market impact, supply interruption, or military allocation.

Evidence roleindependent oversight

Institutional familyU.S. Government Accountability Office

ProvenanceOriginal public record published by U.S. Government Accountability Office.

Analytical usesanctions impact, implementation, and measurement gaps.

LimitRussia-specific case and incomplete strategic-effect measures.

Evidence roleindependent oversight

Institutional familyU.S. Government Accountability Office

ProvenanceOriginal public record published by U.S. Government Accountability Office.

Analytical use40 projects, 24 of 161 milestones reported complete, one certified facility, and disbursement status.

Limitdata end in July 2025 and do not establish later yield/utilization.

Evidence roleofficial primary or output

Institutional familyPRC National Energy Administration

ProvenanceOfficial PRC energy statistics

Analytical useOfficial renewable-capacity, additions, and grid-connection data used to assess power-system scale and growth.

LimitInstalled and grid-connected capacity does not equal firm output, local deliverability, resilience, curtailment performance, or defense-usable supply.

Evidence roleofficial primary or output

Institutional familyIndo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity

ProvenanceOriginal public record published by Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity.

Analytical useestablishes the formal authority and intended mechanisms of the Crisis Response Network.

Limitan agreement to consider exercises/stress tests is not evidence that they occurred or improved performance.

Evidence roleofficial primary or output

Institutional familyIntel

ProvenanceOriginal public record published by Intel.

Analytical use18A high-volume production and slowed Ohio construction.

Limitcompany disclosure does not reveal all project milestones or future customer demand.

Evidence roleofficial primary or output

Institutional familyMicron

ProvenanceOriginal public record published by Micron.

Analytical useconstruction progress and 2027/2028 expected output.

Limitconstruction progress is not qualified wafer output.

Evidence roleofficial primary or output

Institutional familyMicron

ProvenanceOriginal public record published by Micron.

Analytical useinitial domestic production, qualification timing, and Idaho/New York milestones.

Limitcompany-primary projections remain contingent.

Evidence roleofficial primary or output

Institutional familyPRC Ministry of Industry and Information Technology

ProvenanceOfficial PRC industry reporting

Analytical useOfficial output and export-volume reporting across polysilicon, wafers, cells, and modules.

LimitReported production volumes do not establish yield, quality, profitability, ownership-adjusted control, inventory, or sustained output under disruption.

Evidence roleofficial primary or output

Institutional familyPRC State Council

ProvenanceOfficial PRC industrial policy

Analytical useOfficial tax, finance, research, talent, intellectual-property, and market-support instruments for semiconductors and software.

LimitPolicy authorization and incentives do not establish disbursement, additionality, technological maturity, yield, qualified production, or control effectiveness.

Evidence roleofficial primary or output

Institutional familyNational Bureau of Statistics of China

ProvenanceOriginal record published by National Bureau of Statistics of China.

Analytical usemulti-year high-tech output and product-growth trend.

Limitofficial aggregates and output counts do not establish quality or strategic control.

Evidence roleofficial primary or output

Institutional familyNational Bureau of Statistics of China

ProvenanceOriginal record published by National Bureau of Statistics of China.

Analytical useofficial network-depth and trade-growth series.

Limitgross trade does not establish influence, resilience, or enforceable coalition action.

Evidence roleofficial primary or output

Institutional familyNational Bureau of Statistics of China

ProvenanceOriginal record published by National Bureau of Statistics of China.

Analytical usecounterevidence to a one-sided U.S./partner project-delivery improvement claim.

Limitaggregate investment/output is not matched project cycle time, yield, or profitability.

Evidence roleofficial primary or output

Institutional familyState Council Information Office of China

ProvenanceOriginal record published by State Council Information Office of China.

Analytical usecounterevidence that PRC economic-network reach is static.

Limittrade share does not establish partner alignment or crisis cooperation.

Evidence roleofficial primary or output

Institutional familyPRC Ministry of Commerce

ProvenanceOfficial PRC Ministry of Commerce regulation

Analytical useFormal criteria, investigative process, and potential restrictions in China's Unreliable Entity List framework.

LimitRegulatory authority does not establish designation frequency, implementation consistency, firm adaptation, economic cost, or strategic coercive effect.

Evidence roleofficial primary or output

Institutional familyPRC State Council / General Administration of Customs

ProvenanceOfficial PRC State Council publication of General Administration of Customs data

Analytical useOfficial aggregate trade scale, direction, partner, and product reporting for the first half of 2025.

LimitAggregate customs totals do not isolate strategic-product dependencies, value added, beneficial ownership, transshipment, coercive leverage, or crisis availability.

Evidence roleofficial primary or output

Institutional familyPeople's Bank of China

ProvenanceOfficial PRC central-bank report

Analytical useOfficial reporting on cross-border RMB settlement, financial infrastructure, accounts, and international use.

LimitThe report is an official program assessment; transaction use and infrastructure do not by themselves measure coercive leverage, convertibility, market depth, trust, or displacement of the dollar.

Evidence roleofficial primary or output

Institutional familyPRC State Council

ProvenanceOfficial PRC national AI policy

Analytical useOfficial targets and implementation priorities for AI diffusion across science, industry, consumption, governance, and international cooperation.

LimitA policy program and future targets do not establish adoption, model quality, productivity gains, delivery timing, commercial viability, or military capability.

Evidence roleofficial primary or output

Institutional familyPRC National Bureau of Statistics

ProvenanceOfficial PRC national statistics

Analytical useOfficial aggregate data on industrial output, manufacturing, trade, research, energy, and investment.

LimitOfficial national aggregates can be revised and do not resolve product quality, defense usability, ownership, regional distribution, or causal attribution.

Evidence roleofficial primary or output

Institutional familyPRC State Council Information Office

ProvenanceOfficial PRC policy white paper

Analytical useOfficial BRI objectives, institutional architecture, geographic reach, and self-reported implementation claims.

LimitAn official program narrative cannot independently establish project additionality, debt sustainability, host-state outcomes, strategic access, construction quality, or net coalition effect.

Evidence roleofficial primary or output

Institutional familyTSMC

ProvenanceOriginal public record published by TSMC.

Analytical useArizona first-fab high-volume production with good yield, second-fab 2027 schedule, and third-fab construction.

Limitcompany-primary reporting and no comparable PRC project-cycle metric.

Evidence roleofficial primary or output

Institutional familyU.S. Department of Commerce

ProvenanceOriginal public record published by U.S. Department of Commerce.

Analytical useinstitutions, responsibilities, and implementation mechanisms.

Limitinstitutional existence does not establish crisis performance.

Evidence roleofficial primary or output

Institutional familyU.S. Department of Commerce

ProvenanceOriginal public record published by U.S. Department of Commerce.

Analytical useshows real institutional implementation and discussion of table-top exercises.

Limitno published exercise result, response-time measure, or crisis-performance outcome.